The bitcoin markets appear to have regained their composure for the time being following a choppy period of uncertainty for most of the trading day yesterday, and while things have calmed down for now we are not sure the volatility doesn’t return prior to the paint of the 2017 yearly candle which is why we are staying on the sidelines, going into the upcoming few days. Not that we wouldn’t take the opportunity to get long at favorable r/r areas, but given the recent price action we think caution is warranted for the time being.

Bitcoin Market overview


 

BTC transactions per day have declined since the peak around 490,000. This trend has been matched through Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), and Litecoin (LTC). ETH continues to process the highest number of transactions per day, almost double that of BTC. However, the average value of a BTC transaction is over 10x greater than ETH

 

Bitcoin trading volume among all exchangers

 

Exchange traded volume has been led by the US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) pairs. The Tether (USDT) pair, which is pegged to $1, has seen an increase in volume recently as traders seek safe haven from declining BTC prices.

Korean Won (KRW) trading volume and price are down sharply amidst reports that regulatory bodies are looking to reign in anonymous trading accounts. The KRW markets have been trading at almost $4000 above USD markets, which suggests difficult or impossible arbitrage opportunities.

The minister of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, Hong Nam-ki, said on Thursday that the Korean government is banning the use of anonymous virtual accounts in cryptocurrency transactions as part of efforts to curb speculation. These accounts are widely used in the Korean financial industry.

Only real-name bank accounts and matching accounts at virtual currency exchanges will be used for deposits and withdrawals in the future. Reuters reported that this as an outright ban on trading yesterday, which caused a direct and immediate sell off. The New York Times later picked up the story as well.

That being said, we would like to take a moment to reflect on the amazing year that 2017 was for BTC not only in terms of price appreciation but also in terms of the protocol itself and the community in general. There is no doubt that history was made over the past 12 months which has set the stage for even more spectacular developments over the coming years. We are truly excited about the future of BTC and cryptocurrency in general, and we are even more excited to share this journey with all of you along the way.

Bitcoin Technical analysis

The Pitchfork, which uses three anchor points to predict a price channel with diagonal potential reversal zones, shows price vacillating within the heart of the trend (green). A break to the lower diagonal support will signify a strong buy signal based on the year long trend, most of which has been held below the median line (red).

On this same timeframe, since the bullish cross of the 50/200EMA on the daily chart in September 2015 the price has largely remained above the 50EMA. A break of the 50EMA would likely reach for the 200EMA (yellow), currently US$7,300. While unlikely at the moment based on current price structure, it’s important to prepare a roadmap for all possibilities.

On the four hour chart, the 50/200EMAs have crossed and recrossed four times this year, all resulting in a push higher after reaching the 850EMA, currently at US$8,500. If the 200 and 50 EMA cross on this timeframe, I’d expect the same to occur in this instance.

Bitcoin has hit several new all time highs over the course of 2017. The asset was at one point up over 1800%. Despite news events which pummeled the price, BTC has proven that it remains more antifragile now than it has ever been. Mainstream adoption will continue to rise into 2018 with Bitcoin-backed ETFs shortly on the horizon.

Technicals in the near term suggest a crucial week ahead in a historically bearish month for Bitcoin. The likely support for any dip remains between US$8,500-$10,500. Otherwise, new highs to beyond US$30,000 are reasonable based on the current trend.

Bitcoin forecast & trade ideas

Green/blue – Long zone / Orange – short zone

  • Bitcoin Short Term (days-weeks)
    • We will consider a LONG position on a retracement back down to the 11,500 – 12,000 $ area with a stop around the 11,159 $ level and a target of 19,000 $. (entered Dec. 29)
  • Bitcoin Medium Term (weeks-months)
    • (A) We will consider a LONG position on a selloff down to the 6000 – 6500 $ area with a stop around 5846 $ and a target of 20,500 $.
      r/r 19:1
    • (B) We will consider a LONG position on a selloff down to the 8500 – 9500 $ area with a stop around 8000 $ and a target of 20,500 $.
      r/r 8:1
  • Bitcoin Long Term (years) 
    • (A) We will consider a LONG position on a correction down to the 1000 – 2000 $ area with a stop around 890 $ and a target of 22,600 $.
      r/r 20:1
    • (B) We will consider a LONG position on a correction down to the 3000 – 4000 $ area with a stop around 2975 $ and a target of 22,600 $.
      r/r 18:1

Altcoins forecast & trade ideas


 

XMR/BTC – MONERO

Green/blue – Long zone / Orange – short zone

ETH/BTC – ETHEREUM

Green/blue – Long zone / Orange – short zone

ETC/BTC – ETHEREUM CLASSIC

Green/blue – Long zone / Orange – short zone

DSH/BTC – DASH

Green/blue – Long zone / Orange – short zone

LTC/BTC – LITECOIN

Green/blue – Long zone / Orange – short zone

 

Highlights


 

 

 

 

 

Around the Web


 

  • Living Room of satoshi – A simple, secure way to pay your everyday Australian bills (electricity, rego, phone, credit card etc) with bitcoin. here
  • Co-founder of SuperAngelsVentures Tony Tong, Founding Partner of SuperCharger Renu Bhatia, CEO of Australian Digital Commerce Association Nick Giurietto are now among 20+ top-notch confirmed speakers of the Blockchain Economic Forum. link
  • Bitcoin investors in Australia have claimed that major banks including National Australia Bank, ANZ, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Banking Corporation, have started to freeze the bank accounts of cryptocurrency traders without prior notice. link
  • CryptoIzzy discussed Monero’s valuation potential in his latest blog post. He estimates that in the next 5 years, we may arrive at a per-coin value for Monero of $240,000 – or roughly 600x the current price.

  • Chun Yin Cheung (partner in PwC China’s risk assurance practice, based in the Shanghai office, and a committee member of VeChain Foundation) forecast China will surprise the world (again) and change the crypto world. He personally believe in 2018 China will be the first major country to launch a central bank digital currency (CBDC), and that we will also see a large-scale blockchain implementation in the retail and logistic industry with a blockchain solution developed by Chinese companies. Link
  • John McAfee posted on Twitter, “I am inundated by people asking me for recommendations on cryptocurrencies. If you would use your heads you would figure out that the privacy coins (anonymous transactions) will have the greatest future. Coins like Monero (XMR), Verge (XVG), or Zcash (ZEC) cannot lose.”
  • 71Republic reported that South Korea is heavily considering regulating cryptocurrencies. The article highlights, “if the government continues to regulate the marketplace, more secure and private cryptocurrencies would be needed. Monero already solves this problem, which may make it even more likely for the cryptocurrency to rise in value in 2018.”
  • KRAKEN – Update on System Performance and Upgrade

 

 

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